Gaza, Palestine

What future for Gaza in coming years?

While the ideal option for Palestinians is to achieve reconciliation between Ramallah and Gaza, which would preserve the two-state solution, the most likely scenario in the next five years is the continuation of the status quo, with no viable alternative. It is the scenario that does not anger the PA and will not find serious objection from Egypt and Jordan; it is the option that has become familiar to the region.

By Omar Shaban
Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)
Critical Policy Brief, Number 6/2021

Four assumptions:

The following discussion takes for granted the continuation of four aspects of the current status quo:

Anticipating the future of the Gaza Strip in the next five years

In light of these assumptions, this paper examines the available and possible options for the Gaza Strip in the next five years. It is based on a reading of the positions of the relevant parties and the degree of their interaction with the internal environment, as well as the ongoing discussion within Hamas on alternatives paths to take to get out of the crisis that has persisted for 14 years. In an attempt to anticipate the future of the Gaza Strip in the next five years, three alternatives to the status quo can be identified: a the return of the Gaza Strip to PA control, a Hamas-Israel long term truce, and an independent Gaza entity.

Read the full text: Critical Policy Brief, Number 6/2021 | PCPSR

[1] covid-19 crisis, https://bit.ly/3lDxior